Hydrogen Transition Pathways for Industrial Clusters

Hydrogen Transition Pathways for Industrial Clusters (HTPIC) is a six-month, evidence led research and decision support project developed in response to the EIC’s call for innovation on the energy transition of industrial clusters. The project addresses the challenge of determining where, how and under what conditions hydrogen should play a role in decarbonising industrial clusters and surrounding communities, alongside credible alternative pathways.

Across the GB energy system, existing hydrogen programmes and studies are typically undertaken on a cluster-by-cluster or project-specific basis, using differing assumptions, scenarios and decision criteria. This makes it difficult for networks and policymakers to compare options consistently, understand system level trade-offs, or prioritise investment in a transparent and auditable way. The absence of a common decision framework increases the risk of misaligned investment, stranded assets and inconsistent outcomes across regions.

HTPIC aims to close this gap by providing NGN, Future Energy Networks (FEN) and Xoserve with a structured, repeatable decision framework that enables consistent, evidence-based comparison of hydrogen pathways across industrial clusters. The project integrates technical, economic, social and deliverability considerations within a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework, allowing complex evidence to be translated into clear and practical insights rather than standalone studies or narrative recommendations.

The project will be delivered in three stages:

• Stage 1 establishes a robust evidence baseline, including a comprehensive literature and evidence review, documented assumptions register and confirmation of scope and clusters.
• Stage 2 generates robust, comparable evidence across clusters through four analytical workstreams covering hydrogen supply and demand, gas coexistence and system configuration, conversion practicality and costs, and just-transition considerations, while developing and calibrating the MCDM framework with stakeholders.
• Stage 3 applies the agreed framework to undertake structured optioneering and scenario analysis, resulting in prioritised pathways, cluster-specific conversion playbooks and decision-ready outputs.

Key outputs include:

• a literature and evidence review with a transparent assumption register;
• a defensible options-rationalisation matrix and MCDM framework;
• a comprehensive report addressing the four research questions set out in the EIC brief, supported by an executive summary and cluster-specific annexes;
• cluster-level conversion playbooks translating analysis into practical, location-specific insights;
• pathway roadmaps to 2050; and
• a final dissemination pack to support knowledge sharing across NGN, FEN, Xoserve and Ofgem audiences .

HTPIC will support improved strategic planning for hydrogen and alternative decarbonisation pathways, reduce the risk of misaligned investment and stranded assets through structured prioritisation, and strengthen alignment between industrial cluster ambitions and network development plans. By providing a transparent and consistent decision framework, the project enables clearer sequencing of pathways, more robust comparison of hydrogen and alternative options, and improved confidence in future investment appraisal.

The project will also enhance understanding of affordability, workforce implications and wider community impacts, ensuring that pathway selection considers both technical feasibility and socio-economic factors. Through its systematic assessment of coexistence, conversion practicality and deliverability, HTPIC supports safer and more coordinated progression into downstream engineering and delivery programmes.

HTPIC will generate new system-level learning on hydrogen coexistence, conversion practicality and community impacts, presented through a structured, scenario-based and weighted decision framework that enables transparent comparison across industrial clusters. This learning will strengthen evidence-based decision making across networks and provide a clearer foundation for future programme development, regulatory engagement and investment planning.

Learning will be disseminated through the dissemination event, final report, executive summary and EIC knowledge-sharing channels, supporting wider GB network benefit.

The project commences at TRL 2, where the structured assessment methodology and decision framework are defined conceptually. Over the course of delivery, the framework will be applied across multiple industrial clusters, tested against real-world scenarios and stakeholder calibration, and analytically validated through structured optioneering.

By project close, the solution will have progressed to TRL 3, with the methodology demonstrated and validated in a decision-support context, delivering robust prioritisation and clearly articulated pathways.

The project does not include detailed engineering design, trials or implementation. Early-stage engineering, validation or delivery programmes across industrial clusters are already underway or in development through separate governance, funding and procurement routes. HTPIC is designed to strengthen and rationalise those activities by providing a structured evidence base and decision framework to support confident downstream investment and engineering decisions.