Predictive Model for Flood Risk Management

Predictive Model for Flood Risk Management

Status: Complete
Reference: NIA_NGT0278
Lead Network: National Gas Transmission PLC
Start Date: 01 August 2025
End Date: 01 March 2026
Budget: Total project costs: £42,052Which consists of:Previsico cost of £34,400.NGT total internal and admin costs £7,652
Funding Mechanism: Network Innovation Allowance
Technology: Asset Management, Condition Monitoring, Environmental, Gas Transmission Networks, Maintenance Inspections, Modelling, Network Monitoring, Resilience
Strategy Theme: Net zero and the energy system transition
Collaborating Networks: National Gas Transmission PLC
Project Partners: The project will be delivered in partnership with , a specialist in predictive flood forecasting and sensor-based monitoring. Previsico will provide the modelling platform, sensor hardware, and technical expertise required for deployment and evaluation. Their responsibilities include conducting the nationwide flood risk survey, deploying systems at four sites, and delivering technical documentation and performance reports. There is no external funding beyond the Network Innovation Allowance (NIA).

Abstract

This project developed and evaluated a predictive flood monitoring system for Above Ground Installations (AGIs) and pipeline assets using real-time sensor data and 48-hour surface water forecasting. The system was deployed at Goxhill AGI, Crieff AGI, Hatton Compressor Station and Penicuik Peat Farm pipeline, following a a nationwide flood risk survey. The trial assessed the system’s accuracy, responsiveness, and operational value across diverse environments. The project supports climate adaptation, regulatory compliance, and asset resilience by enabling early warning and proactive intervention. It aligns with RIIO-2 NIA objectives by reducing flood-related disruption, enhancing safety, and informing future investment decisions. The project concluded with a technical report and recommendations for wider rollout under RIIO-3.

This project will generate new learning in the following areas:

Flood Risk Prioritisation: Insights from the nationwide survey will inform future investment planning and validate or challenge existing assessments (e.g. 2008 and 2016 studies).
Technology Performance: Evaluation of forecast accuracy, sensor responsiveness, and operational usability across four distinct environments.
Integration Feasibility: Lessons on how predictive monitoring can align with existing workflows and systems, including potential for API-based integration.
Climate Adaptation Strategy: Evidence to support the inclusion of predictive monitoring in future engineering standards and resilience planning.

Learning will be disseminated through a final technical report, a governance presentation pack, and publication on the ENA Smarter Networks Portal. Internal briefings will also be held with engineering, innovation, and climate risk teams.

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2026-09-18