Risk Assessment Methodologies for Pipelines & AGIs 2026-2027
Abstract
The UK’s high pressure gas transmission and distribution networks-which comprise of buried pipelines and above ground installations (AGIs) pose potential major safety hazards in the rare event of gas release. Effectively managing these risks is challenging due to several interrelated issues such as outdated or fragmented risk assessment methodologies, where existing tools and methodologies need to be continuously updated to reflect regulatory and standards change. Individual gas network operators do not experience enough major incidents to statistically derive meaningful failure frequencies. This limits their confidence in risk estimates unless data is pooled and collectively analysed across the industry. Risks vary significantly between diverse asset types, and a consistent integrated methodology is hence needed to address this complexity.
National Gas Transmission and Cadent Gas must demonstrate through credible, up-to-date safety cases, that risks are understood, quantified realistically and managed to as low as reasonably possible (ALARP). The continued enhancement of these methodologies will further strengthen assurance in risk management.