Future Energy Networks

Following on from Stage 1 of the project, which assessed if a predictive model could be used to find hidden vulnerability, the next stage of the project is focused on identifying customers in vulnerable situations whose heat comes from Cadent delivered gas that are missing out on the protections that the Priority Service Register (PSR) brings because they are “hidden” behind a non-domestic supply contract and may not be immediately visible through existing data sets and ways of working. The project aims to proactively identify and support hidden customers in vulnerable situations within Cadent’s network by developing a data-driven model that integrates existing datasets from different sources ensuring that they receive the support that they need in the event of an interruption to supply.

Gas networks supply embedded power stations that support the electricity network. These embedded generators can fire up without any warning to GDNs and is causing significant challenges to gas networks.

GDNs are required to submit hourly gas demand nominations to National Gas for each offtake point within specified time deadlines.

Embedded generators are small. They are not included in the UNC’s requirements to notify their GDN of intended offtake activity due to their size being below the threshold for NExAs (network exit agreements). Despite this, GDNs must include the demand from these embedded generators in their nominations to ensure there is sufficient gas within their network. This causes numerous challenges for SGN and other GDNs.

GDNs’ current forecasting process does not specifically forecast embedded gas generation, and current models do not take inputs from the electricity market. Embedded generators act in a variety of electricity markets, yet GDNs don’t have visibility of this demand.

It is anticipated that additional embedded generators will connect in the coming months/years as the demand for electricity increases.The challenge of not having knowledge of embedded generator’s demand and its potential to contribute to a storage shortage has been acknowledged by both EGRIT (Electricity and Gas Resilience Task Group) and NESO (National Energy System Operator). The benefits of creating a notification platform supported by a ML engine are various. Namely to develop an ML-enabled forecasting tool to predict gas demand from embedded generators with increased accuracy as delivery time approaches. In addition to create a notification platform to improve real-time visibility of embedded generator activities within the electricity and gas networks.

This NIA project aims to progress the FEmGE forecasting tool from TRL 1 to TRL 7, delivering a fully functional MVP. NGN will be funding this project to the value of £92,333 and SGN to £184,666 of the total of £276,999.

The project will develop an integrated hierarchical network modelling framework for simulating the operation of future GB energy system scenarios with highly interconnected gas and power networks. The realistic modelling of power-to-gas and storage operators’ behaviour will be emphasised. The integrated models will be demonstrated on a simulation platform as real-time digital twins for future system scenarios.

Considerable novelty will lie in the combination of modelling scale and granularity; representation of many autonomous decentralised agents making sub-optimal decisions; and the optimal resolution of dilemmas arising from the finite energy budgets constraining primarily weather-driven low to zero carbon scenarios.

To reach our national net zero targets by 2050, we need to decarbonise approximately 25 million homes in England. Domestic heating accounts for approximately 14% of the UKs entire emissions and significant investment is required to improve the energy efficiency of our housing stock. In addition, there are major challenges associated with domestic decarbonisation:

• England has the most diverse housing stock in the UK. with 35% built before the end of WWII.
• Sixty-four percent are owner-occupied, and these homeowners need to have a good, cost effective and efficient experience of home and heating upgrade as we move towards zero carbon homes.
• Implementing heating upgrades to this ageing housing stock requires a ‘whole house’ approach therefore, consideration must be given to the building fabric and heating system.

Retrofitting existing homes with electric heating systems or deployment of green hydrogen boilers offer potential solutions however, the intricacies of deployment and installation are complex, further research and development is required to learn more about installation, performance of various heating options. Doing so will inform future domestic decarbonisation strategies.

Novel green molecules have the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK’s gas network, while also reducing system costs. Synthetic and e-methane can play a significant role in meeting future industrial demand as well as decarbonising the power, transport and domestic heat sectors. This project investigates novel green gases in more depth to understand how they can be implemented effectively and quickly deployed to decarbonise the gas sector in the UK.

The Phase 3 project on gas inhibitors for hydrogen pipelines aims to translate lab-scale findings into practical applications for the UK’s National Transmission System. It focuses on validating the effectiveness of oxygen and alternative inhibitors in mitigating hydrogen embrittlement, addressing unresolved safety and integrity concerns from previous phases, and designing a plan for safe integration into existing infrastructure. The project includes physical demonstration planning, and network design to assess technology implementation.

The Gas Network Evolution Simulator (GNES) is an innovative project aimed at optimising the transition away from natural gas by using advanced Agent Based Modelling (ABM). GNES simulates the complex interactions between stakeholders such as Gas Distribution Networks (GDNs), Electricity Networks, consumers, and policymakers. It analyses economic, social, and environmental impacts of gas network decommissioning and explores new infrastructure opportunities. By identifying challenges and benefits, GNES supports the development of cost-effective, equitable solutions that support vulnerable populations, ensuring a smooth transition to low-carbon energy sources while minimising consumer disruption and maximising network efficiency.

As the energy system transitions away from unabated natural gas and parts of the gas network are either decommissioned or repurposed to support the UK’s net zero goals, there is an increased risk of unintentional third-party damage to the network. Any supply interruptions to the transmission network would directly impact security of supply across the country and have a significant cost to customers including power generators, industry and domestic users. This project will investigate the benefits of moving from expensive, low frequency, manual network inspections to innovative AI assisted surveillance technologies in combination with satellite imagery and drones.

Gas networks in Britain have connected 130 biomethane plants, which together have capacity to produce over 11TWh of green gas – enough to meet the annual demand of around a million average homes.

As biomethane production tends to cluster in farming areas, some parts of the country have higher connections and future potential. This can present challenges in relation to the capacity available for existing and new plants to inject biomethane, especially when overall gas demand is lower in summer months.

The gas networks and their partners have mature systems and processes to assess capacity and work with producers and developers to identify capacity. More recently, potential solutions to constraints have been developed and trialled, notably through the Optinet project (NIA_CAD0061) and including Wales & West Utilities’ Smart Pressure Control roll out and Reverse Compression.

The Government is continuing to support new production through the Green Gas Support Scheme and is considering future policy for biomethane. This could significantly increase the volume of biomethane produced and connected, which has been recognised in NESO’s FES 2025.

In its Draft Determination for RIIO-3, Ofgem has recognised the potential for future growth in biomethane connections. The regulator “encourage[s] the GDNs to collectively engage with the biomethane industry to streamline and align connection processes”.

In response to this and other feedback from biomethane developers and operators, this project will explore the potential for more standardised approaches to support capacity for biomethane and overcome constraints.

This project will explore ventilation and explosion relief requirements for housing currently used on the gas network for pressure regulating installations (PRIs). Housings currently provide security from a range of factors from weather to vandalism, while also providing the necessary relief requirements in the event of an emergency. The understanding of these requirements for Natural Gas has been developed, however, work conducted in the IGEM TD/13 hydrogen supplement did not fully address whether these design specifications are suitable for use with Hydrogen. This multi-stage project will first explore the design specifications listed in industry standards (IGEM/TD/13, GIS/PRS/35, SGN/SP/CE/10, etc) and understand which of these may be appropriate and which may require redesign. The latter stage of this project will take the design specifications deemed to be unsuitable for use with hydrogen and conduct testing to develop revised design specifications which would provide the necessary relief requirements.